МОСКВА, 02 ИЮЛЯ 2020 г. Всероссийский центр изучения общественного мнения (ВЦИОМ) представляет данные мониторингового опроса о социальных ожиданиях россиян, который показывает, насколько оптимистично россияне оценивают будущее страны.
По данным мониторингового опроса ВЦИОМ, индекс социальных ожиданий россиян относительно будущего страны достиг отметки -60 п.п. Для сравнения: в июне прошлого года он составлял -40 п.п.
С момента введения всеобщего режима самоизоляции в нашей стране это один из лучших показателей. Пик негативных оценок был зафиксирован в апреле текущего года, когда Индекс социальных ожиданий россиян снизился до -81 п.п. (в апреле прошлого года показатель равнялся -43 п.п.).
На 5 п.п. выросла доля россиян, считающих, что тяжелые времена уже позади (с 10% в мае до 15% в текущей опросной волне). Практически каждый пятый россиянин (17%) считает, что сейчас страна переживает самые тяжелые времена (+1 п.п. с прошлой опросной волны). На 8 п.п. пунктов снизилась доля тех, кто придерживается мнения, что тяжелые времена для нашей страны еще впереди (с 66% в мае до 58% в текущей опросной волне).
Чаще о том, что тяжелые времена еще впереди, говорит молодежь в возрасте от 18 до 24 лет (71%), также жители Москвы и Санкт-Петербурга и городов-миллионников (66% и 63% соответственно), люди, оценивающие свое текущее материальное положение как плохое (72%).
*Индекс социальных ожиданий показывает, насколько оптимистично россияне оценивают будущее страны. Показатель рассчитывается как разность между ответом «они уже позади» и суммой ответов «переживаем их сейчас» и «они еще впереди». Индекс может принимать значение от -100 до 100 пунктов. Чем выше значение индекса, тем оптимистичнее выглядят перспективы России. Нулевое значение фиксирует баланс оптимистичных и пессимистичных прогнозов.
SOCIAL OPTIMISM IS BACK
Pessimistic moods hit record high in April. Social moods are improving, and Russian optimism is rising in May and June.
Pessimistic moods hit record high in April. Social moods are improving, and Russian optimism is rising in May and June.
MOSCOW, JULY 02, 2020 Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the findings of a tracking study of Russian social moods; the study shows how optimistic Russians are about the country’s future.
According to VCIOM’s tracking survey, the index of social expectations about the country’s future reached -60 p.p. In contrast, in June last year the index was -40 p.p.
It has been one of the best indicators since the self-isolation regime was introduced in Russia. Negative assessments hit record high in April this year when the index of Russians’ social expectations fell to -81 p.p. (in April last year the index was -43 p.p.).
The share of Russians who consider that hard times are over has increased by 5 p.p. (since 10% in May to 15% in this survey wave). Almost every fifth Russian (17%) considers that the country is currently going through tough times (+1 p.p. since the previous survey wave). The share of those who believe that hard times are yet to come for Russia has decreased by 8 p.p. (since 66% in May to 58% in this survey wave).
Those who are more likely to think that hard times are yet to come are young Russians aged 18-24 (71%), persons living in Moscow, St Petersburg and million-plus cities (66% and 63, respectively), as well as those respondents who consider their current financial situation to be bad (72%).
*Index of Social Expectations shows how optimistic Russian people are about the country’s future. Index is calculated as a difference between the answer “hard times are over” and a sum of answers “we are going through hard times now” and “hard times are yet to come”. Index can vary between -100 and 100 points. The higher the value, the more optimistic the Russians are about Russia’s future. Zero value indicates a balance between optimistic and pessimistic forecasts.
Russian VCIOM-Sputnik survey was conducted on June 19, 2020. Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,600 Russians aged 18 and older. A stratified dual-frame random sample based on a complete list of Russian landline and mobile phone number was used. The data were weighted according to selection probability and social and demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes to the wording of questions and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.
There are different viewpoints concerning the economic crisis in Russia. In your opinion, are we going through hard times now, are the hard times over, or yet to come? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) |
| Mar19 | Apr 19 | May 19 | June 19 | July 19 | Aug 19 | Sept 19 | Oct 19 | Nov 19 | Dec 19 | Jan 20 | Feb 20 | Mar 20 | Apr 20 | May 20 | June 20 | |
We are going through hard times now | 15 | 19 | 17 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 17 | |
Hard times are over | 22 | 24 | 26 | 25 | 23 | 24 | 22 | 24 | 24 | 26 | 24 | 22 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 15 | |
Hard times are yet to come | 53 | 48 | 48 | 50 | 50 | 53 | 55 | 50 | 52 | 50 | 49 | 52 | 62 | 72 | 66 | 58 | |
Don’t know | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 10 | |
Optimism Index | -46 | -43 | -39 | -40 | -43 | -44 | -46 | -40 | -42 | -37 | -40 | -44 | -61 | -81 | -72 | -60 | |
There are different viewpoints concerning the economic crisis in Russia. In your opinion, are we going through hard times now, are the hard times over, or yet to come? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) |
| Total respondents | Aged 18-24 | Aged 25-34 | Aged 35-44 | Aged 45-59 | Aged 60 + |
We are going through hard times now | 17 | 10 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 18 |
Hard times are over | 15 | 9 | 14 | 14 | 19 | 15 |
Hard times are yet to come | 58 | 71 | 60 | 58 | 53 | 57 |
Don’t know | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 |
There are different viewpoints concerning the economic crisis in Russia. In your opinion, are we going through hard times now, are the hard times over, or yet to come? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) |
| Total respondents | Moscow and St Petersburg | Million-plus cities | 500-950 thousand inhabitants | 100-500 thousand inhabitants | Less than 100 thousand | Rural area |
We are going through hard times now | 17 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 21 | 17 | 17 |
Hard times are over | 15 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 10 | 16 | 21 |
Hard times are yet to come | 58 | 66 | 63 | 58 | 61 | 53 | 53 |
Don’t know | 10 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 9 |
There are different viewpoints concerning the economic crisis in Russia. In your opinion, are we going through hard times now, are the hard times over, or yet to come? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) |
| | Financial self-assessment |
| Total respondents | Very good, good | Average | Very bad, bad | Don’t know |
We are going through hard times now | 17 | 23 | 17 | 12 | 8 |
Hard times are over | 15 | 18 | 16 | 10 | 38 |
Hard times are yet to come | 58 | 49 | 55 | 72 | 34 |
Don’t know | 10 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 20 |
Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM, the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory.
